Vietnam’s economy is expected to expand by 6.6% this year and 6.5% in 2026, the highest in Southeast Asia for both years, according to the Asian Development Bank ( ADB ).

“Strong trade, a recovery in export manufacturing, and robust foreign direct investment fuelled Vietnam’s economic growth in 2024,” says Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB country director for Vietnam.

“However, recent US announcements on tariffs, along with other continued global uncertainties, could pose significant challenges to the country’s growth this year.”

Chakraborty notes that the Vietnamese government has initiated an ambitious plan to boost growth, which can help mitigate the significant external risks.”

The ADB’s Asian Development Outlook April 2025 projects economies in developing Asia and the Pacific will grow 4.9% this year, down from 5.0% in 2024.

According to the study, US tariffs are intended to reduce bilateral trade deficits the United States runs with some of its trading partners.

“Developing Asia will face significantly higher US tariffs. Of the top 10 highest tariffs globally, five are in developing Asia: Cambodia ( 49% ), Lao PDR ( 48% ), Vietnam ( 46% ), Sri Lanka ( 44% ), and Myanmar ( 44% ),” the ADB report says.

Tariff negotiations

Vietnam posted a robust 7.1% growth last year, up from 5.1% in 2023. Both rates were the highest in Southeast Asia, which includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Timor Leste.

For this year, ADB predicts Cambodia and the Philippines would grow 6.1% and 6.0%, respectively, the region’s second and third highest. The bank expects Southeast Asia as a whole would grow 4.7% in both years.

Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh on April 6 said Vietnam’s government would not revise its 2005 GDP growth target of at least 8%, despite the 46% tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump three days before. The Vietnamese government is seeking a deal with the US. It will ask for a delay after the April 9 enforcement date and offer 0% tariffs on US goods and products.

Also on April 6, Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc, accompanied by corporate executives, started a four-day working trip to the US for tariff negotiations.

The American Chamber of Commerce ( AmCham ) in Vietnam says the fact that Vietnam is supposed to reduce its tariffs is only one of the requests of the United States Trade Representative ( USTR ).

The USTR had earlier issued the National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers, which commented on Vietnam’s status on a number of trade-related issues. However, the report did not include requests for specific deliverables.

“To that end, AmCham requests the administration to present clear ‘asks’ to the Vietnamese government. Additionally, we call on AmCham members in Vietnam, particularly those involved in importing from the US to Vietnam, to be more specific in recommending steps that could increase US imports to Vietnam,” says AmCham, a business association with more than 550 corporate and 2,500 individual members, representing US firms operating in the Southeast Asian nation.

The Vietnamese economy expanded 6.93% in the first quarter of the year, the highest quarterly growth since 2020, according to the General Statistics Office. The consumer price index in the first three months rose by 3.22% in the first three months of 2025 from the same period a year ago.